Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 11/18/25

Jay Jaffe: It’s a weak first-year slate that doesn’t have anybody who will get in this year, and I see only one candidate — Cole Hamels — with any long-term potential

Jay Jaffe: Meanwhile, Carlos Beltrán needs to gain less than 5% to gain entry. My pofile of him should be going up shortly.

Jay Jaffe: Meanwhile, I’ve profiled six of the eight candidates on the 2026 Contemporary Baseball Era Committee ballot, including Fernando Valenzuela on Friday. Long story short, I think the voters should be looking at him as a pioneer rather than focusing on the good-not-great statistics  https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2026-contemporary-baseball-era-committee-c…

Jay Jaffe: with that ample preamble out of the way, on with the show.

Nancy’s Friend Sluggo: 500 home runs seems a fanciful goal for Pete Alonso given the decline phase players go through in their 30s, but is that a magic number for the Hall of Fame if the player hasn’t been caught using PEDS or experiencing some equivalent extenuating circumstance? Would a player with that total definitely get in? Thanks, Jay

Jay Jaffe: (sorry, lunch arrived 20 minutes ahead of schedule as I began typing this)

Jay Jaffe: I don’t know if 500 home runs will be viewed as a definite in for a player who wasn’t viewed as an MVP contender at some point but I suspect it would be enough if he had a clean reputation

Sirras: What player that is currently on the ballot but unlikely to be voted into the Hall of Fame did you especially enjoy watching?

Jay Jaffe: Matt Kemp was certainly a lot of fun when he was an MVP contender chasing a 40-40 season. Edwin Encarnación’s homers tended to be impressive ones. And I’ll always have a soft spot for David Wright and wish his body hadn’t betrayed him

Jay Jaffe: Sushi: not the easiest meal to eat at my desk while chatting. Sorry folks

Garrett: Thoughts on a potential Triston Casas change of scenery trade to Washington? Wonder if there’s a deal to be made with Paul Toboni in charge and the Nats receiving calls on MacKenzie Gore.

Jay Jaffe: I think if the Nationals are going to trade Gore, they should target a position of greater defensive importance and somebody who isn’t surrounded by question marks after injuries

not the lunch guy: Obviously there are a lot of interesting things about HoF season other than just “who gets in this year”, but from that perspective, does this feel like a particularly boring one? It feels like we have one highly likely case and nobody else anywhere close

Jay Jaffe: It’s not the MOST exciting cycle but here are a few things:

• *Andruw Jones is less than 9 points away from 75%, and would have the largest gain from a ballot debut of any Hall of Famer
• Chase Utley stands a good chance of crossing the 50% threshold, a strong indicator of future election
• Utley’s coattails could help candidates such as Jimmy Rollins and Dustin Pedroia. I’m not particularly keen on either but I see the arguments in their favor.  
• Cole Hamels is a harbinger of starting pitchers to come and is better than a lot of people remember
• What happens with Félix Hernández after a stronger-than-expected debut?

Tom M: Jeff Passan said Pirates were runner up for Josh Naylor at ~$80M, and are in on Schwarber.  What is you take on this?

Jay Jaffe: They’re going to keep Davy Andrews busy with his We Tried Tracker

Mr. Jones And Me: Andrew Jones could get in this year…or he could remain somewhat stalled out…any sense of momentum on Jones’s part? If he doesn’t make it in via the Writer’s Ballot, I imagine a Vet Committee staffed with Chipper, McGriff, Bobby Cox, Glavine, etc. would be more than happy to get him in (fair or otherwise), but still, curious to me that he’s harder for voters to wrap their heads around than the Wagners and Heltons of the world.

Mr. Jones And Me: (Beyond the low average, fall-off post age 30, domestic violence, etc. – ALL OF THAT ASIDE)

Jay Jaffe: I think the big thing is that his high JAWS standing is driven by being the career leader in fielding runs (+235, to go with 10 Gold Gloves). People are inherently suspicious of the accuracy of defensive metrics and Gold Gloves and I can’t say I blame them. His momentum has slowed; he’s only gained 8 points in the last two cycles, so maybe some of that other baggage that you wave off is catching up or is insurmountable for some voters. I do think he’ll get in, but maybe not this year.

Jay Jaffe: I’ve struggled with all of that myself, honestly, but I’ve voted for him each time (since 2021)

CoriolesEffect: After the big 3+1 of Kershaw, Scherzer, Verlander and Greinke, who’s next for you in terms of SPs with a competitive Hall shot? Has Sale passed Cole?

Jay Jaffe: Sale has passed Hamels in terms of JAWS but I hope we don’t have to wait for his eligibility before we get another enshrined starter. I’m really not sure who would be next if not Hamels, unless the Contemporary Committee takes up the case of Johan Santana in 2029.

You did it again: Pretty sure Judge locked up the MVP based on how he finished…. right after you wrote about the race.

Jay Jaffe: Ha, you may have a point. On August 27 I wrote about Cal Raleigh’s case for MVP (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cal-raleigh-has-set-a-record-and-leveled-t…) and from that night onward, Judge hit… .374/.533/.798 (251 wRC+) with 13 homers in 137 PA. Raleigh hit .252/.389/.579 (167 wRC+) with 10 homers in 131 PA from that point, so … wow. I hadn’t realized the gap was that wide afterwards.

Jay Jaffe:

War2D2: Hi Jay! I was in a friendly argument with my brother yesterday about the HoF candidacies of Pettitte and Hamels. My personal take was that Hamels deserves it more than Pettitte, but I probably wouldn’t vote for him. My brother took the opposite tack (really only because we were bored and needed something to complain about). I know you voted for Pettitte last time around—do you think he’s more deserving than Hamels, about the same, or less?

Jay Jaffe: I actually voted for Pettitte 2 years ago (2024 ballot) then replaced him with Félix last year. Right now I lean Hamels, whose postseason credentials are solid if not as voluminous as Pettitte’s

Jay Jaffe: my hunch is since I have room this time around i’ll probably vote both, and Félix, and I’ll take another look at Buehrle

Jay Jaffe: OK, due to the Cloudfare mess earlier, which delayed our editorial pipeline, Beltrán is being held for tomorrow. I’ll have the Era Committee profiles of Bonds and Clemens Thursday and Friday, schedule-wise.

bringbackpologrounds: Rank the events that were most essential to the Dodgers becoming a juggernaut: 1. Guggenheim takes over 2. TV Deal 3. Mattingly dumped for Roberts 4. Shohei signs

Jay Jaffe: I think that the order you have them in there — which is chronological — is actually about right. First, ditching McCourt for a well-capitalized owner who knew how to use the Dodgers’ market to the franchise’s advantage, then scoring the massive TV deal to support that, then shoring up the dugout by ditching a manager who couldn’t work with a 21st-century front office, and then getting the biggest free agent of all time.

Martel Gonzalez: Do you think teams are worried about giving guys long term contracts with the lockout next year? Assuming the 27 season is canceled, players will be an extra year older than anticipated

Jay Jaffe: A) if there’s a lockout those players don’t get paid. B) it’s stupid to assume the 2027 season will be outright cancelled. the teams and MLB have far too much to lose to let that happen.

Jay Jaffe: C) those players under contract were always going to get older.

Trevor: All these lockout articles today from prominent reporters…. How many games do you think both sides would realistically miss? A month? Whole season?

Jay Jaffe: are there lockout articles today? I haven’t seen any but I’ve been off of social media for a few hours. Again, I think the owners have far too much to lose to punt a whole season. Could they lose weeks? I suppose it’s conceivable, but i’ll put it as “less than a month” maximum

Matt Kory: Hey Jay! Hope all is well! What’s the best beer you’ve had recently? Cheers!

Jay Jaffe: Matty! Long time no see on the socials. I’ve unfortunately gotten lazy about logging my beer picks but I was blown away by Treehouse Julius — which i’d only had once before, back in 2017 — when I bought some back in July while on Cape Cod. more recently, getting reacquainted with old friend Deschutes Black Butte Porter, which I had never seen before outside of a single now-defunct bar in NYC, has been a treat.

Jackson: If Schwarber and Realmuto don’t end up back in Philly, where do you see them going?

Jay Jaffe: A Schwarber-Cubs reunion wouldn’t surprise me. If Realmuto leaves, I’m going to guess Padres since their catching has been dreadful lately.

Phil: Who is Jarren Duran, to you? I am very torn, as a Red Sox fan hearing these rumors. I’m not convinced he’s homophobic, for what that’s worth–I think he learned something from all of that. And he’s a fascinating guy. But I’m not at all sure how good he really is, baseballwise.

Jay Jaffe: Man, I don’t know, except that his fluctuations make him hard to pin down even if I set aside the Other Stuff. Some of that may be due to Fenway Park, where it’s really tough to get a read on outfield defensive metrics. To me Duran seems to be a guy who’s probably capable of manning center with above-average offense for the position for a couple of years, but may not be able to remain a significant plus in a corner. That’s still a 3-4 win player for the next few years but not somebody i’d break the bank or tear up my roster for.

I do still have trouble getting past the slur, but I also know Duran has had some pretty serious mental health struggles as well, including a suicide attempt. I hope he’s got a good support system in place, more than anything.

MikeD: It is a thin ballot, but depending on your views regarding PED players, I can see potentially nine future HOFers. Am I crazy?

Jay Jaffe: even if I count A-Rod and Manny, who aren’t getting in via the writers and probably not the committees unless Bonds and Clemens go first (ha!) I can’t get to 9. Beltrán, Jones, Utley… then a lot of others whose paths to Cooperstown are anything but clear, regardless of your or my evaluation of them

Jeremy: There are some players for whom the perception seems to really change between the time they retire and their time on the BBWAA ballot. Players who weren’t widely seen as HoF candidates when they were active, who eventually get elected. And conversely, players who were seen as serious candidates when they were active, who never sniff election. Are they any generalities about such cases? Do they mostly arise when someone retires just before big changes in how the game is played? Are they mostly players who were under- or over-appreciated when active because advanced stats liked them better than traditional counting stats?

Jay Jaffe: The generality is something you touched upon: times change. The ways in which we view players both within the industry and as fans have been shaken up, with advanced statistics a big driver of that. With the permeation of analytics in front offices, player paths are more malleable than ever as well, so we get carefully calibrated swing changes and pitch development. We’ve also got workload changes that have had a huge impact on pitching, which has spilled over into hitter strategy (swing for the fences more, etc).

Jay Jaffe: The game doesn’t stay in one place for long, for better or worse.

TKDC: You’ve written a few times criticizing the new committee rule that “bans” a player “permanently” if he fails to reach a certain threshold on two eras votes, however, how much stock can you put in such a “permanent ban” when there is nothing at all keeping the Hall of Fame deo

TKDC: just deciding to reverse it?

Jay Jaffe: For sure, the Hall has changed up the rules regarding committees so many times during this millennium that things don’t stay in place long, but it’s always harder to change course when there’s a rule in place. Some majority of the Hall of Fame board wanted this permanent ban put into place, and so I don’t think it can be waved off as something likely to change quickly, even if the format gets tweaked. And it’s worth remembering that taking even 5-10 years to change course could be the difference between an honoree being alive or dead when he’s finally elected.

2131, 1312: Will Paul Goldschmidt be viewed as as close to a shoo-in as Joey Votto seems to be? They have almost identical career values and counting stats (although I guess Goldy could still tack on a few more)

Jay Jaffe: their numbers will wind up looking very similar but Goldschmidt does not have the same level of cultural cachet as Votto — nobody’s doing oral histories of his quirks or writing about his presence on social media. Writers love Votto, and that’s going to accelerate his progress where Goldschmidt might take a few years for voters to come around.

Jeremy: It seems like rapid changes in starting pitcher use are always going to leave guys like Hamels, Petite, Santana as controversial borderline cases. Compared to many guys who came just a bit before them, they come up short. But compared to many guys who came just a bit after them, they’re going to end up looking amazing. I really appreciate your work on how to adjust our standards to allow for changes in how the game is played. But aren’t there are always going to be tough calls associated with players who played right in the middle of a time of rapidly changing standards?

Jay Jaffe: it’s an ongoing challenge, and one real problem is that as careers like Hamels’ being among the best, we don’t have an easy mechanism to go back and reward guys like Stieb, Cone, Hershiser, Saberhagen et al who were as good or better but couldn’t measure up to the 300-win guys who preceded them, and who represent the real anomaly in post-expansion baseball.

RallyGuy: Are the Yankees somewhat screwed if Trent Grisham takes the QO this afternoon?

Jay Jaffe: no, because a one-year deal is probably a better outcome for them than re-signing him to a 4- or 5-year deal where he’s more likely to decline and require a move to a corner.

Kip: Should ATL be hyper aggressive in free agency this year? Their window appears to be closing after 2028: Acuna will be a free agent; Chris Sale will be retired by then; Ozzie will probably be out of baseball; Olson and Riley will be entering their decline phase.

Jay Jaffe: yeah I think this is a big winter for them, especially for fortifying their rotation.

Jerry: Uber Eats or DoorDash?

Jay Jaffe: Seamless

Nico’s Corner: You seem pretty optimistic about Beltran.  Is the Astros thing his biggest hurdle?  Is it the fact that his stats are so broad?  Competition at a tough position?  Played for too many teams?

Jay Jaffe: yes, the sign-stealing thing. His numbers are very strong — top 10 in JAWS with very similar counting stats (but better OBP and positional adjustment) to Andre Dawson.

Mr. T: With better advocacy would Ray Lankford have had a shot at the HoF?

Jay Jaffe: No. The guy had 38.2 career WAR and 1,561 hits. That’s an obvious non-Hall of Famer.

2131, 1312: Would you rank Hamels above Mark Buehrle? and which of them will earn more votes?

Jay Jaffe: Yes, I think so and I suspect the voters will see it that way too, if not in 2026 then eventually. Hamels was more valuable on a per-inning basis because he missed more bats, and he has a stronger postseason resumé as well.

Edna Krabapple: Was your point that guys like Shin Soo Choo merit induction based on being the first [country]-born player, or just that they should be considered/recognized somehow for that?

Jay Jaffe: recognized. For dozens of players, the honor is just getting on the ballot, and he merits that because of his stateside accomplishments and the significance of his path to the majors as the first Korea-born player.

Jay Jaffe: guys like that have a huge impact in growing the game internationally.

Mike Teevee: Seems crazy to me that Lee Smith needed the Eras committee to get in.  What was the beef against him among writers?

Jay Jaffe: Smith debuted with 42.3% and by year 10 had only increased that to 50.6% — and then Bonds, Clemens et al showed up and began overshadowing everybody on the ballot. I think the big issue is that he wasn’t seen as the epitome of dominance the way an Eckersley, Gossage, or Rivera were, even while once owning the saves record.

WinTwins0410: Jay, two questions: 1) I know we don’t know the identities of the committee members yet, but doesn’t it really seem like (and you’ve effectively written as much) that the only really likely Era Committee contenders are Kent, Mattingly and Murphy this year?  Assuming the Hall acts as it has in the past, I just don’t see them creating a committee that would let in anyone associated with PEDs.  We’ll know more when we see the committee’s identity I realize, but it isn’t really just a committee whose output will be electing one or more of those three guys? And then 2) Should we be surprised that Schilling, who got seven out of 16 votes last time, was omitted from this ballot?  Seems that way to me.  I find him to be exceedingly odious and wouldn’t vote for him, but still — I’m kind of surprised that he didn’t rate a spot on this ballot, between the 7/16 votes last time and his previous BBWAA totals. Thoughts?

Jay Jaffe: I wouldn’t entirely count out Sheffield, who has a plausible anti-Bonds narrative with regards to his PED connection, or Valenzuela, whose status as a pioneer is probably his real ticket in.

As for Schilling, the 5/16 rule (any candidate not getting five votes is ineligible to appear for the next cycle) seems at least partially designed to stagger a larger-than-manageable group across multiple ballots. Somebody had to get bumped, and I’d bet Schilling’s open letter to the Hall requesting that he be shielded from the writers’ ballot did him no favors.

Bog: Why has Utley’s support been so tepid? He has a strong statistical case, a great peak and a clean record. Feels like an easy yes to me

Jay Jaffe: We’re talking about a high-peak, short-career guy who got screwed out of awards and whose defensive metrics are doing a lot to drive his case. I don’t see 39.8% after two cycles as tepid at all, especially when getting into the low 40s is generally a harbinger of future election.

Guest: not including Alomar, that guy doesn’t count

Guest: do you think Delgado gets in just based on the fact we have 0 Jays in the Hall?

Jay Jaffe: whoops reversed the order of those two, and no, that’s not going to drive voters to choose Delgado.

2131, 1312: Do you think Gerrit Cole could end up getting to 200 wins (he’s at 153 and entering age 35)? and by the time he is on the ballot would anybody care?

Jay Jaffe: I think he can still reach 200, and it will be a huge deal if he does, as far as HOF stuff, because he’s checked most of the other boxes already.

12 to 6: admittedly “challenge” trades are pretty rare…that said, sal perez is 35; would something like rushing and a secondary prospect for makiel garcia make sense?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t see it happening. The Dodgers love Max Muncy, who’s comparatively inexpensive, and they’re in no hurry to move Rushing.

Nick Stone: You referenced Rollins WRT to Utley. Are you concerned that his superficially stronger case might hurt Utley’s?

Jay Jaffe: Hey Nick! I think it’s the other way around. If Utley is getting support, maybe we ought to take another look at Rollins, who has bigger counting stats, more hardware, and was regarded as the leader of those teams.

War2D2: I just saw a post from a writer saying they reached the end of their “10-year HoF voting eligibility.” When did they add a voter age-out clause?

Jay Jaffe: In 2015, the Hall announced a decision to sunset voters more than 10 years removed from active coverage. Between that rule, media consolidation and job losses, the electorate has been reduced by about 1/3 relative to its peak circa 2011.

Jay Jaffe: OK folks, that’s all the pitches I have in this elbow this week. Thanks so much for stopping by. not sure yet if I’ll do this next week due to the holiday — if not, enjoy Thanksgiving and know that I and the rest of my colleagues here at FanGraphs are always thankful for your support.